Results: Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. (TSE:9706) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.7% to JP¥4,972. Revenues were JP¥69b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥67.51 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 12%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Japan Airport Terminal's eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥297.4b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 8.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 15% to JP¥253 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥292.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥245 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Japan Airport Terminal's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Japan Airport Terminal

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥5,929, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Japan Airport Terminal analyst has a price target of JP¥7,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,000. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Japan Airport Terminal shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Japan Airport Terminal's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Japan Airport Terminal is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Japan Airport Terminal following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Airport Terminal going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Japan Airport Terminal you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.