Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.8% to JP¥2,778 in the week after its latest interim results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥984b, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥90.07 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Japan Airlines' eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.98t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.8% to JP¥294. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.98t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥294 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Japan Airlines

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,627. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,200 and the most bearish at JP¥3,100 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Japan Airlines' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Japan Airlines.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Japan Airlines' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Airlines going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Japan Airlines .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.