Stock Analysis

Investors in Japan Airlines (TSE:9201) have seen decent returns of 71% over the past five years

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 58% over five years, which is below the market return. Some buyers are laughing, though, with an increase of 20% in the last year.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years of share price growth, Japan Airlines moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:9201 Earnings Per Share Growth October 28th 2025

We know that Japan Airlines has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Japan Airlines, it has a TSR of 71% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Japan Airlines provided a TSR of 24% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 11% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Japan Airlines has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course Japan Airlines may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.