Kyushu Railway Company Just Missed EPS By 7.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Kyushu Railway Company (TSE:9142) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to JP¥3,309 in the past week. Revenues of JP¥420b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥245, missing estimates by 7.2%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Kyushu Railway

Following the latest results, Kyushu Railway's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥448.9b in 2025. This would be an okay 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to JP¥277. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥440.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥274 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,742. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Kyushu Railway, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,300 and the most bearish at JP¥2,900 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Kyushu Railway is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 6.8% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.8% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. Not only are Kyushu Railway's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kyushu Railway analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kyushu Railway , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.