Kyushu Railway Company Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Kyushu Railway Company (TSE:9142) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.3% to hit JP¥118b. Kyushu Railway reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥106, which was a notable 15% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Kyushu Railway's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥491.4b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 10% to JP¥348. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥491.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥343 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Kyushu Railway

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,311, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Kyushu Railway analyst has a price target of JP¥5,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,100. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kyushu Railway'shistorical trends, as the 6.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.2% per year. So although Kyushu Railway is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kyushu Railway. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kyushu Railway going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Kyushu Railway (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.