If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. In light of that, from a first glance at Tohbu Network (TSE:9036), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Tohbu Network:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.0094 = JP¥223m ÷ (JP¥25b - JP¥1.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).
So, Tohbu Network has an ROCE of 0.9%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Transportation industry average of 5.2%.
See our latest analysis for Tohbu Network
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Tohbu Network.
What Can We Tell From Tohbu Network's ROCE Trend?
In terms of Tohbu Network's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, the ROCE was 1.7% two years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last two years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Tohbu Network becoming one if things continue as they have.
Our Take On Tohbu Network's ROCE
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 35% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
On a final note, we found 3 warning signs for Tohbu Network (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
While Tohbu Network isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Tohbu Network might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.