Nishi-Nippon Railroad (TSE:9031) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥22.50

The board of Nishi-Nippon Railroad Co., Ltd. (TSE:9031) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 30th of June, with investors receiving ¥22.50 per share. This means the annual payment is 1.6% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.

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Nishi-Nippon Railroad's Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Based on the last payment, Nishi-Nippon Railroad was earning enough to cover the dividend, but free cash flows weren't positive. In general, we consider cash flow to be more important than earnings, so we would be cautious about relying on the sustainability of this dividend.

EPS is set to fall by 9.5% over the next 12 months. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could be 14%, which we consider to be quite comfortable, with most of the company's earnings left over to grow the business in the future.

Check out our latest analysis for Nishi-Nippon Railroad

Dividend Volatility

The company has a long dividend track record, but it doesn't look great with cuts in the past. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ¥30.00 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ¥35.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.6% a year over that time. It's encouraging to see some dividend growth, but the dividend has been cut at least once, and the size of the cut would eliminate most of the growth anyway, which makes this less attractive as an income investment.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. Nishi-Nippon Railroad has impressed us by growing EPS at 24% per year over the past five years. A low payout ratio gives the company a lot of flexibility, and growing earnings also make it very easy for it to grow the dividend.

In Summary

Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. To that end, Nishi-Nippon Railroad has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.