West Japan Railway Company Just Missed EPS By 7.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest interim earnings release from West Japan Railway Company (TSE:9021), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥872b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 7.1% to hit JP¥82.73 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from West Japan Railway's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.84t in 2026. This would reflect a modest 4.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 6.7% to JP¥269 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.84t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥271 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for West Japan Railway

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,478. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic West Japan Railway analyst has a price target of JP¥3,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,900. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting West Japan Railway is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the West Japan Railway's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that West Japan Railway's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that West Japan Railway is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,478, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple West Japan Railway analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - West Japan Railway has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.