Tobu Railway Valuation
Is 9001 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 9001 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 9001 (¥3139) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1455.71)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 9001 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9001?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is 9001's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | JP¥668.73b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 11.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 9001's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 17.8x | ||
9024 Seibu Holdings | 25.3x | 5.4% | JP¥762.3b |
9142 Kyushu Railway | 10.8x | -2.2% | JP¥548.5b |
9007 Odakyu Electric Railway | 10.4x | -28.4% | JP¥646.8b |
9009 Keisei Electric Railway | 24.9x | -7.2% | JP¥1.0t |
9001 Tobu Railway | 15.5x | 6.7% | JP¥668.7b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9001 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 9001's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9001 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (13.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 9001's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 15.5x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 16.5x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9001 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | JP¥3,139.00 | JP¥4,075.00 +29.8% | 4.7% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,800.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Apr ’25 | JP¥3,723.00 | JP¥4,075.00 +9.5% | 4.7% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,800.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Mar ’25 | JP¥3,883.00 | JP¥4,025.00 +3.7% | 6.9% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Feb ’25 | JP¥3,909.00 | JP¥3,950.00 +1.0% | 5.8% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’25 | JP¥3,789.00 | JP¥3,933.33 +3.8% | 6.7% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Dec ’24 | JP¥3,671.00 | JP¥3,800.00 +3.5% | 2.1% | JP¥3,900.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Nov ’24 | JP¥3,698.00 | JP¥3,875.00 +4.8% | 3.8% | JP¥4,100.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Oct ’24 | JP¥3,842.00 | JP¥3,875.00 +0.9% | 3.8% | JP¥4,100.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Sep ’24 | JP¥4,014.00 | JP¥3,925.00 -2.2% | 5.8% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,700.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Aug ’24 | JP¥3,830.00 | JP¥3,725.00 -2.7% | 9.7% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Jul ’24 | JP¥3,858.00 | JP¥3,725.00 -3.4% | 9.7% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Jun ’24 | JP¥3,670.00 | JP¥3,537.50 -3.6% | 9.4% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥3,150.00 | n/a | 4 |
| May ’24 | JP¥3,500.00 | JP¥3,537.50 +1.1% | 9.4% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥3,150.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Apr ’24 | JP¥3,170.00 | JP¥3,537.50 +11.6% | 9.4% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥3,150.00 | JP¥3,723.00 | 4 |
| Mar ’24 | JP¥3,015.00 | JP¥3,625.00 +20.2% | 11.9% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,200.00 | JP¥3,883.00 | 4 |
| Feb ’24 | JP¥3,025.00 | JP¥3,733.33 +23.4% | 12.0% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,200.00 | JP¥3,909.00 | 3 |
| Jan ’24 | JP¥3,080.00 | JP¥3,733.33 +21.2% | 12.0% | JP¥4,300.00 | JP¥3,200.00 | JP¥3,789.00 | 3 |
| Dec ’23 | JP¥3,240.00 | JP¥3,700.00 +14.2% | 8.8% | JP¥4,100.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | JP¥3,671.00 | 3 |
| Nov ’23 | JP¥3,440.00 | JP¥3,700.00 +7.6% | 8.8% | JP¥4,100.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | JP¥3,698.00 | 3 |
| Oct ’23 | JP¥3,410.00 | JP¥3,700.00 +8.5% | 8.8% | JP¥4,100.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | JP¥3,842.00 | 3 |
| Sep ’23 | JP¥3,275.00 | JP¥3,633.33 +10.9% | 6.9% | JP¥3,900.00 | JP¥3,300.00 | JP¥4,014.00 | 3 |
| Aug ’23 | JP¥3,230.00 | JP¥3,533.33 +9.4% | 10.9% | JP¥3,900.00 | JP¥3,000.00 | JP¥3,830.00 | 3 |
| Jul ’23 | JP¥3,095.00 | JP¥3,533.33 +14.2% | 10.9% | JP¥3,900.00 | JP¥3,000.00 | JP¥3,858.00 | 3 |
| Jun ’23 | JP¥2,946.00 | JP¥3,533.33 +19.9% | 13.1% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥2,900.00 | JP¥3,670.00 | 3 |
| May ’23 | JP¥2,923.00 | JP¥3,533.33 +20.9% | 13.1% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥2,900.00 | JP¥3,500.00 | 3 |
| Apr ’23 | JP¥2,968.00 | JP¥3,533.33 +19.0% | 13.1% | JP¥4,000.00 | JP¥2,900.00 | JP¥3,170.00 | 3 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.