Why SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Is Up 5.3% After Its Record Investment in OpenAI and Share Buyback

• SoftBank Group recently authorized a major share repurchase program and confirmed its final US$22.5 billion investment in OpenAI, solidifying a total US$30 billion commitment to the AI leader pending a restructuring aimed at facilitating a future public offering.
• This unprecedented investment not only marks one of the largest private funding rounds in the tech sector but also underscores SoftBank’s aim to be a significant force in the evolving global AI landscape.
• We'll examine how SoftBank's expanded investment in OpenAI could reshape its investment narrative and perceived future growth prospects.

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SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap

SoftBank Group shareholders need to believe in the company’s vision of unlocking value from AI investments and monetizing tech assets through IPOs and strategic exits. The recently announced share repurchase program may support near-term sentiment and help address the wide net asset value discount, while the final US$22.5 billion OpenAI investment could remain a key catalyst as public market interest in AI matures. The most important risk remains the potential for disappointing exits or lower-than-expected valuations of SoftBank’s tech holdings, which is not directly affected by the news but always in focus for investors.

One particularly relevant recent announcement is SoftBank’s completion of the previous share buyback cycle, with over 42 million shares cancelled between April and August 2025. This commitment to returning capital may boost investor confidence in the company’s ongoing ability to balance shareholder returns with large-scale investments in emerging technology, especially as market attention remains fixed on the timeline and value of planned portfolio IPOs.

Yet, investors should be aware that, despite increased buybacks and big-ticket AI deals, the risk of a chill in tech IPO demand or softening private valuations could ripple through SoftBank’s future results...

Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it's free!)

SoftBank Group's outlook anticipates ¥8,650.2 billion in revenue and ¥620.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on a projected annual revenue growth rate of 5.5%, but expects a decline of ¥1,110.8 billion in earnings from the current level of ¥1,731.4 billion.

Uncover how SoftBank Group's forecasts yield a ¥18644 fair value, a 29% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community shared fair value estimates for SoftBank Group ranging from ¥5,771 to ¥18,644 per share. The range of these opinions underscores ongoing questions around the company’s tech exit opportunities, which remain a major influence on both realized gains and future market value.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group - why the stock might be worth as much as ¥18644!

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SoftBank Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SoftBank Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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