Is SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Redefining Its Investment Playbook After the NVIDIA Sale and Share Split?

• In recent days, reports emerged that SoftBank Group is in early discussions to acquire a minority stake in Neysa Networks, an Indian AI cloud infrastructure startup, while also announcing a share split and early redemption of ¥177.0 billion in subordinated notes.
• An especially significant development was SoftBank’s unexpected exit from its NVIDIA position right before disclosing record quarterly earnings, raising fresh questions about its capital allocation and long-term investment approach.
• We’ll examine how SoftBank’s abrupt NVIDIA divestment and record Q2 earnings reshape its investment narrative and future direction.

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SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in SoftBank Group, you have to believe in its ability to unlock value through continuous capital recycling and investments in emerging AI infrastructure, with its Vision Fund and Arm holdings serving as foundational assets. The recent discussions around a minority stake in Neysa Networks, plus the sudden NVIDIA exit, highlight ongoing volatility but do not materially shift the most important near-term catalyst, successful monetization of AI-focused assets. The largest risk remains that lofty market expectations for tech IPOs and exits could face headwinds if capital market demand softens or regulatory hurdles arise.

Among recent company actions, the announced share split, effective January 1, 2026, stands out as particularly relevant, potentially increasing liquidity and broadening retail access to the stock. While this move in itself does not alter the short-term catalysts or primary risks, it does underscore SoftBank’s continued attention to shareholder engagement amid an active deal and investment pipeline.

However, investors should not overlook that even with robust catalysts, the risk of softer-than-expected demand for big tech IPOs could swiftly impact SoftBank’s earnings and valuation if...

Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it's free!)

SoftBank Group is projected to achieve ¥8,650.2 billion in revenue and ¥620.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This forecast requires 5.5% annual revenue growth but represents a decrease of ¥1,110.8 billion in earnings from the current ¥1,731.4 billion.

Uncover how SoftBank Group's forecasts yield a ¥22477 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three perspectives from the Simply Wall St Community assigned SoftBank fair values from ¥5,771 to ¥22,477 per share. While views vary, many are weighing the potential for delayed monetizations to affect the company’s future earnings momentum.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SoftBank Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SoftBank Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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