Earnings Beat: KDDI Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for KDDI Corporation (TSE:9433) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 4.8% to JP¥2,581. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥3.0t were in line with what the analysts predicted, KDDI surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥53.94 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering KDDI are now predicting revenues of JP¥6.15t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a credible 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.8% to JP¥192. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥6.15t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥192 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for KDDI

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,696, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values KDDI at JP¥3,196 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,865. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the KDDI's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting KDDI's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.2% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.7% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. KDDI is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,696, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for KDDI going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for KDDI you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.