Some Confidence Is Lacking In Accrete Inc. (TSE:4395) As Shares Slide 28%

Accrete Inc. (TSE:4395) shares have had a horrible month, losing 28% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 23% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Accrete's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 49.8x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Accrete has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Accrete

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Accrete, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Accrete?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Accrete's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 121% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 78% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Accrete's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Accrete's P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Accrete's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Accrete currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Accrete that you need to be mindful of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Accrete. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.