Shimadzu Corporation's (TSE:7701) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Shimadzu Corporation's (TSE:7701) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Shimadzu's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Shimadzu

Keen to find out how analysts think Shimadzu's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Shimadzu would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.5%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 12% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 6.5% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 9.5% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Shimadzu's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Shimadzu currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Shimadzu with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.