Earnings Miss: Shimadzu Corporation Missed EPS By 14% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Shimadzu Corporation (TSE:7701), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥118b, although statutory earnings per share came in 14% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥27.42 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Shimadzu's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥539.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 3.0% to JP¥174 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥539.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥177 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Shimadzu

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,385, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shimadzu at JP¥5,600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,400. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.4% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Shimadzu's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shimadzu analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shimadzu you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.