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Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (TSE:6965) earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last three years, but the stock advances 6.2% this past week
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (TSE:6965) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 18% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 33% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
The recent uptick of 6.2% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 19% each year. In comparison the 13% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's TSR for the last 3 years was -30%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Hamamatsu Photonics K.K had a tough year, with a total loss of 16% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 4.2%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hamamatsu Photonics K.K better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Hamamatsu Photonics K.K may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Hamamatsu Photonics K.K might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:6965
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K
Manufactures and sells photomultiplier tubes, imaging devices, light sources, opto-semiconductors, and imaging and analyzing systems in Japan and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet average dividend payer.
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