Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. Just Missed EPS By 67%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (TSE:6965) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥51b revenue coming in 4.9% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥13.76 missed the mark badly, arriving some 67% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥219.5b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 9.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥68.05, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥221.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥69.01 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,313, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hamamatsu Photonics K.K analyst has a price target of JP¥3,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,800. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hamamatsu Photonics K.K analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.