Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. (TSE:6770) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to JP¥1,447 in the past week. Alps Alpine beat expectations by 4.4% with revenues of JP¥234b. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of JP¥2.17 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Alps Alpine

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering Alps Alpine, is for revenues of JP¥948.7b in 2025. This implies a measurable 3.1% reduction in Alps Alpine's revenue over the past 12 months. Alps Alpine is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of JP¥143 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥931.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥139 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Alps Alpine's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥1,489, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Alps Alpine, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,900 and the most bearish at JP¥1,000 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alps Alpine is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Alps Alpine's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Alps Alpine's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,489, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alps Alpine. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Alps Alpine going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Alps Alpine that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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