Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a good week for Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. (TSE:6770) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.4% to JP¥1,625. Revenues of JP¥239b beat expectations by 3.8%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of JP¥13.76 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twelve analysts covering Alps Alpine, is for revenues of JP¥953.7b in 2026. This implies a perceptible 4.2% reduction in Alps Alpine's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 59% to JP¥69.69 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥949.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥58.80 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for Alps Alpine

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥1,463, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Alps Alpine, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,700 and the most bearish at JP¥1,200 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.6% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alps Alpine's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Alps Alpine following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,463, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alps Alpine. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Alps Alpine going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Alps Alpine (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.