Anritsu Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Anritsu Corporation (TSE:6754), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of JP¥24b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥4.55 fell short of forecasts by 66%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Anritsu's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥121.0b in 2026. This reflects a solid 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 14% to JP¥81.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥121.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥83.61 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Anritsu

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,613, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Anritsu, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,100 and the most bearish at JP¥1,160 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Anritsu's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Anritsu is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Anritsu. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Anritsu. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Anritsu analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Anritsu you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.