Rigaku Holdings Corporation Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Investors in Rigaku Holdings Corporation (TSE:268A) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at JP¥986 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were JP¥19b, 11% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of JP¥59.01 being in line with what the analysts forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Rigaku Holdings' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥100.1b in 2026. This would be a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 63% to JP¥63.51. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥100.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥63.57 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Rigaku Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,133, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Rigaku Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥1,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥950. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Rigaku Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Rigaku Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Rigaku Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.