What PCA Corporation's (TSE:9629) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

PCA Corporation (TSE:9629) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 87% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, PCA may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.7x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for PCA as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for PCA

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on PCA will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For PCA?

PCA's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 82%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 3.7% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 9.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that PCA's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On PCA's P/E

PCA's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that PCA currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for PCA (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than PCA. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com