Optimistic Investors Push Writeup Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6580) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Despite an already strong run, Writeup Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6580) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

After such a large jump in price, WriteupLtd may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.6x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that WriteupLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for WriteupLtd

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on WriteupLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is WriteupLtd's Growth Trending?

WriteupLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 55% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 77% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 11% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that WriteupLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On WriteupLtd's P/E

The strong share price surge has got WriteupLtd's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of WriteupLtd revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with WriteupLtd (at least 1 which is a bit concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.