Why Japan Business Systems' (TSE:5036) Earnings Are Better Than They Seem

The stock was sluggish on the back of Japan Business Systems, Inc.'s (TSE:5036) recent earnings report. Along with the solid headline numbers, we think that investors have some reasons for optimism.

See our latest analysis for Japan Business Systems

Examining Cashflow Against Japan Business Systems' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2024, Japan Business Systems had an accrual ratio of 0.29. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of JP¥2.29b, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through JP¥2.1b in the last year. Unfortunately, we don't have data on Japan Business Systems' free cash flow for the prior year; that's not necessarily a bad thing, though we do generally prefer to be able to see a bit of a company's history. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Unfortunately (in the short term) Japan Business Systems saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth JP¥1.7b. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Japan Business Systems to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Japan Business Systems' Profit Performance

Japan Business Systems saw unusual items weigh on its profit, which should have made it easier to show high cash conversion, which it did not do, according to its accrual ratio. Based on these factors, it's hard to tell if Japan Business Systems' profits are a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability. If you'd like to know more about Japan Business Systems as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Japan Business Systems.

Our examination of Japan Business Systems has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.