There's Reason For Concern Over Otsuka Corporation's (TSE:4768) Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.8x Otsuka Corporation (TSE:4768) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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Otsuka certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Otsuka

Keen to find out how analysts think Otsuka's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Otsuka's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Otsuka's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 18%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 44% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the ten analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 4.4% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 8.6% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it concerning that Otsuka is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Otsuka's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Otsuka (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.