Trend Micro Incorporated

TSE:4704 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.0t

Trend Micro Valuation

Is 4704 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4704 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4704 (¥7468) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥9987.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4704 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4704?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4704 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.7x
PEG Ratio2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4704's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4704 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.4x
4716 Oracle Corporation Japan
27.6x5.3%JP¥1.5t
9749 Fuji Soft
32.6x32.4%JP¥387.5b
3854 I'LL
24.3x11.9%JP¥69.4b
2326 Digital Arts
13.1x-11.9%JP¥59.1b
4704 Trend Micro
65.9x22.8%JP¥1.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.9x) compared to the peer average (24.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4704's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a23.2%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a23.2%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.9x) compared to the JP Software industry average (22.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4704's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4704 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio65.9x
Fair PE Ratio40.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4704 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥7,468.00
JP¥7,826.17
+4.8%
11.4%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥7,833.00
JP¥7,851.80
+0.2%
11.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥7,676.00
JP¥7,851.80
+2.3%
11.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥7,714.00
JP¥7,793.80
+1.0%
13.5%JP¥9,000.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥8,359.00
JP¥7,496.00
-10.3%
16.9%JP¥9,000.00JP¥5,860.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥7,548.00
JP¥6,966.00
-7.7%
19.6%JP¥9,000.00JP¥4,700.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥7,853.00
JP¥6,550.91
-16.6%
15.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥4,700.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥5,732.00
JP¥6,224.55
+8.6%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00n/a11
Oct ’24JP¥5,668.00
JP¥6,224.55
+9.8%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00n/a11
Sep ’24JP¥6,171.00
JP¥6,224.55
+0.9%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00n/a11
Aug ’24JP¥6,725.00
JP¥6,258.33
-6.9%
11.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00n/a12
Jul ’24JP¥6,945.00
JP¥6,258.33
-9.9%
11.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00n/a12
Jun ’24JP¥6,760.00
JP¥6,310.83
-6.6%
12.0%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,800.00n/a12
May ’24JP¥6,630.00
JP¥6,294.17
-5.1%
11.8%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,833.0012
Apr ’24JP¥6,470.00
JP¥6,294.17
-2.7%
11.8%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,676.0012
Mar ’24JP¥6,410.00
JP¥6,435.83
+0.4%
12.1%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,714.0012
Feb ’24JP¥6,260.00
JP¥6,919.17
+10.5%
12.1%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥8,359.0012
Jan ’24JP¥6,140.00
JP¥6,919.17
+12.7%
12.1%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥7,548.0012
Dec ’23JP¥6,810.00
JP¥7,057.50
+3.6%
13.7%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥7,853.0012
Nov ’23JP¥7,430.00
JP¥7,453.08
+0.3%
15.9%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥5,732.0013
Oct ’23JP¥7,820.00
JP¥7,453.08
-4.7%
15.9%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥5,668.0013
Sep ’23JP¥8,310.00
JP¥7,391.54
-11.1%
16.5%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥6,171.0013
Aug ’23JP¥7,720.00
JP¥7,017.69
-9.1%
12.9%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥6,725.0013
Jul ’23JP¥6,690.00
JP¥7,017.69
+4.9%
12.9%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥6,945.0013
Jun ’23JP¥7,490.00
JP¥7,061.54
-5.7%
10.5%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,800.00JP¥6,760.0013
May ’23JP¥7,260.00
JP¥6,947.50
-4.3%
9.9%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,800.00JP¥6,630.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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