Trend Micro Incorporated

TSE:4704 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.0t

Trend Micro Valuation

Is 4704 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4704 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4704 (¥7954) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥11257.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4704 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4704?

Key metric: As 4704 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4704. This is calculated by dividing 4704's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4704's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.9x
EarningsJP¥24.34b
Market CapJP¥1.04t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4704's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4704 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.8x
4716 Oracle Corporation Japan
32.5x8.0%JP¥1.9t
9749 Fuji Soft
32.3x21.7%JP¥601.8b
3854 I'LL
27.6x13.5%JP¥79.6b
2326 Digital Arts
18.9x6.8%JP¥80.8b
4704 Trend Micro
42.9x17.2%JP¥1.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4704's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4704 42.9xIndustry Avg. 22.4xNo. of Companies22PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the JP Software industry average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4704's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4704 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.9x
Fair PE Ratio33.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4704 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4704 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥7,954.00
JP¥8,429.78
+6.0%
7.0%JP¥9,168.00JP¥7,200.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥7,926.00
JP¥8,329.78
+5.1%
6.7%JP¥9,168.00JP¥7,200.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥8,364.00
JP¥8,113.17
-3.0%
8.2%JP¥9,000.00JP¥6,700.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥8,731.00
JP¥7,833.17
-10.3%
10.8%JP¥9,000.00JP¥6,200.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥7,199.00
JP¥7,693.17
+6.9%
10.5%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,200.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥6,785.00
JP¥7,693.17
+13.4%
10.5%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,200.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥7,078.00
JP¥7,821.17
+10.5%
11.2%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,200.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥7,833.00
JP¥7,851.80
+0.2%
11.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥7,676.00
JP¥7,851.80
+2.3%
11.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥7,714.00
JP¥7,793.80
+1.0%
13.5%JP¥9,000.00JP¥6,150.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥8,359.00
JP¥7,496.00
-10.3%
16.9%JP¥9,000.00JP¥5,860.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥7,548.00
JP¥6,966.00
-7.7%
19.6%JP¥9,000.00JP¥4,700.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥7,853.00
JP¥6,550.91
-16.6%
15.6%JP¥8,900.00JP¥4,700.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥5,732.00
JP¥6,224.55
+8.6%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,926.0011
Oct ’24JP¥5,668.00
JP¥6,224.55
+9.8%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥8,364.0011
Sep ’24JP¥6,171.00
JP¥6,224.55
+0.9%
11.7%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥8,731.0011
Aug ’24JP¥6,725.00
JP¥6,258.33
-6.9%
11.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥7,199.0012
Jul ’24JP¥6,945.00
JP¥6,258.33
-9.9%
11.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥6,785.0012
Jun ’24JP¥6,760.00
JP¥6,310.83
-6.6%
12.0%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥7,078.0012
May ’24JP¥6,630.00
JP¥6,294.17
-5.1%
11.8%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,833.0012
Apr ’24JP¥6,470.00
JP¥6,294.17
-2.7%
11.8%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,676.0012
Mar ’24JP¥6,410.00
JP¥6,435.83
+0.4%
12.1%JP¥7,630.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,714.0012
Feb ’24JP¥6,260.00
JP¥6,919.17
+10.5%
12.1%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥8,359.0012
Jan ’24JP¥6,140.00
JP¥6,919.17
+12.7%
12.1%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥7,548.0012
Dec ’23JP¥6,810.00
JP¥7,057.50
+3.6%
13.7%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,500.00JP¥7,853.0012
Nov ’23JP¥7,430.00
JP¥7,453.08
+0.3%
15.9%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥5,732.0013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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