Some Confidence Is Lacking In AI,Inc. (TSE:4388) As Shares Slide 25%

AI,Inc. (TSE:4388) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 38% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, AIInc's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.1x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

AIInc certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for AIInc

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on AIInc will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is AIInc's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as AIInc's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 325%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 40% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 9.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that AIInc is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate AIInc's very lofty P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that AIInc currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for AIInc you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.