Appier Group, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The full-year results for Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥34b were what the analysts expected, Appier Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥28.70 per share, an impressive 44% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Appier Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Appier Group from six analysts is for revenues of JP¥43.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 28% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 52% to JP¥43.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥43.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥41.80 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥2,022, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Appier Group analyst has a price target of JP¥2,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,430. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Appier Group'shistorical trends, as the 28% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 31% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.9% annually. So although Appier Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Appier Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,022, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Appier Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Appier Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.