VRAIN Solution (TSE:135A) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

The market for VRAIN Solution, Inc.'s (TSE:135A) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week. Despite this, our analysis suggests that there are some factors weakening the foundations of those good profit numbers.

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A Closer Look At VRAIN Solution's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

VRAIN Solution has an accrual ratio of 1.28 for the year to February 2025. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of JP¥241m despite its profit of JP¥425.1m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that VRAIN Solution generated positive FCF of JP¥416m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. One positive for VRAIN Solution shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of VRAIN Solution.

Our Take On VRAIN Solution's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think VRAIN Solution's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that VRAIN Solution's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of VRAIN Solution.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of VRAIN Solution's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.