Tokyo Electron Limited (TSE:8035) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, Tokyo Electron Limited (TSE:8035) recently reported its full-year numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥2.4t were in line with what the analysts predicted, Tokyo Electron surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥1,182 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tokyo Electron's 20 analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.53t in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥1,187, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.51t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,206 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Tokyo Electron

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥30,245. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tokyo Electron at JP¥40,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥24,200. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tokyo Electron shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Tokyo Electron's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tokyo Electron is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tokyo Electron's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tokyo Electron. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Tokyo Electron analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tokyo Electron has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.