Miraial Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:4238) 30% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

The Miraial Co., Ltd. (TSE:4238) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 28% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Miraial's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.9x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 13x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

For example, consider that Miraial's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Miraial

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Miraial, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Miraial's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 52%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 38% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.8% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Miraial is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Miraial's plummeting stock price has brought its P/E right back to the rest of the market. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Miraial currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Miraial you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Miraial. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com