Does Bunkyodo Group Holdings (TSE:9978) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Bunkyodo Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9978) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Bunkyodo Group Holdings

What Is Bunkyodo Group Holdings's Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Bunkyodo Group Holdings had JP¥4.42b in debt in May 2024; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has JP¥809.0m in cash leading to net debt of about JP¥3.61b.

A Look At Bunkyodo Group Holdings' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Bunkyodo Group Holdings had liabilities of JP¥6.31b due within 12 months and liabilities of JP¥1.93b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had JP¥809.0m in cash and JP¥610.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥6.82b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the JP¥2.64b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Bunkyodo Group Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Bunkyodo Group Holdings shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (22.8), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.0 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. On the other hand, Bunkyodo Group Holdings grew its EBIT by 25% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Bunkyodo Group Holdings will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Bunkyodo Group Holdings burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Bunkyodo Group Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Bunkyodo Group Holdings has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Bunkyodo Group Holdings (2 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.