Advance Residence Investment Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Advance Residence Investment's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.4% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 1.2% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 0.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.5% in 3 years.

Key information

1.2%

Earnings growth rate

0.8%

EPS growth rate

Residential REITs earnings growth	3.7%
Revenue growth rate	-0.4%
Future return on equity	6.5%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	15 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

TSE:3269 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (JPY Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
1/31/2027	36,567	16,506	N/A	N/A	4
1/31/2026	35,560	15,761	N/A	N/A	4
1/31/2025	34,542	15,124	N/A	N/A	4
1/31/2024	37,378	16,058	-2,456	24,838	N/A
7/31/2023	37,046	15,878	17,854	25,690	N/A
1/31/2023	35,122	15,562	22,551	22,551	N/A
7/31/2022	34,567	15,301	21,702	21,702	N/A
4/30/2022	34,383	15,204	21,586	21,586	N/A
1/31/2022	34,198	15,107	21,470	21,470	N/A
10/31/2021	34,048	14,975	21,566	21,566	N/A
7/31/2021	33,898	14,843	21,661	21,661	N/A
4/30/2021	34,135	14,857	23,346	23,346	N/A
1/31/2021	34,371	14,870	25,031	25,031	N/A
10/31/2020	34,452	15,068	27,170	27,170	N/A
7/31/2020	34,533	15,266	29,309	29,309	N/A
4/30/2020	34,087	15,153	27,444	27,444	N/A
1/31/2020	33,642	15,039	25,579	25,579	N/A
10/31/2019	33,097	14,559	22,628	22,628	N/A
7/31/2019	32,552	14,078	19,677	19,677	N/A
4/30/2019	32,525	14,075	20,760	20,760	N/A
1/31/2019	32,498	14,071	21,842	21,842	N/A
10/31/2018	32,407	13,979	21,699	21,699	N/A
7/31/2018	32,315	13,886	21,557	21,557	N/A
4/30/2018	32,069	13,663	20,188	20,188	N/A
1/31/2018	31,822	13,440	18,820	18,820	N/A
10/31/2017	31,622	13,227	N/A	18,468	N/A
7/31/2017	31,422	13,013	N/A	18,117	N/A
4/30/2017	31,186	12,795	N/A	18,390	N/A
1/31/2017	30,948	12,577	N/A	18,663	N/A
10/31/2016	30,737	12,367	N/A	18,570	N/A
7/31/2016	30,527	12,157	N/A	18,477	N/A
4/30/2016	30,287	12,026	N/A	17,594	N/A
1/31/2016	30,047	11,896	N/A	16,710	N/A
7/31/2015	29,996	11,888	N/A	15,834	N/A
1/31/2015	30,169	12,471	N/A	46,027	N/A
7/31/2014	29,336	11,760	N/A	16,394	N/A
1/31/2014	27,588	10,950	N/A	16,326	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 3269's forecast earnings growth (1.2% per year) is above the savings rate (0.3%).

Earnings vs Market: 3269's earnings (1.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the JP market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 3269's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 3269's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 3269's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 3269's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.5%).

Advance Residence Investment Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Advance Residence Investment Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Period Ending January 31, 2023 and July 31, 2023

Recent updates

Syla Co., Ltd. signed a letter of intent to acquire RESIDIA Yokohama Odori-Koen from Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) for approximately ¥590 million.

Advance Residence Investment Corporation to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Sep 17, 2024

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,905 per share

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) agreed to acquire RESIDIA Kunitachi from ITOCHU Corporation (TSE:8001) for ¥1.3 billion.

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Final dividend of JP¥5,905 announced

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Advance Residence Investment Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 14, 2024

Now 20% overvalued

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,870 per share at 3.6% yield

Now 21% overvalued

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,770 per share at 3.3% yield

No independent directors

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,725 per share

No independent directors

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) agreed to acquire RESIDIA Kumamoto-Karashima from Meiwa Real Estate Co for ¥4 billion.

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5,406 (vs JP¥5,267 in 1H 2022)

Advance Residence Investment Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Period Ending January 31, 2023 and July 31, 2023

ITOCHU Property Development, Ltd. agreed to acquire Tokyo Student-House Wako from Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) ¥800 million.

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,700 per share

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) agreed to acquire Residia Hakata Higashi for ¥845 million.

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: JP¥10,908 (vs JP¥10,736 in FY 2021)

Now 22% undervalued

No independent directors

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) agreed to acquire RESIDIA Setagaya-Wakabayashi for ¥1100 million.

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,600 per share

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥5,266 (vs JP¥5,286 in 1H 2021)

An unknown buyer agreed to acquire RESIDIA Yoyogi and RESIDIA Nishi-Shinjuku from Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) for ¥1.1 billion.

Upcoming dividend of JP¥5,600 per share

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥10,736 (vs JP¥10,859 in FY 2020)

Advance Residence Investment Corporation Announces Dividend for the Period from August 1, 2020 to ­ January 31, 2021

New 90-day high: JP¥321,500

Advance Residence Investment Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2021 Results on Mar 17, 2021

New 90-day high: JP¥316,500

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) completed the acquisition of Arendal Kamisaginomiya property in Japan from Nomura Real Estate Building Co. Ltd.

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) signed a contract to acquire Arendal Kamisaginomiya property in Japan from Nomura Real Estate Building Co. Ltd. for ¥1.7 billion.

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) completed the acquisition RESIDIA Nishi-Koyama and RESIDIA Ikegami II in Tokyo.

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) completed the acquisition of M's Court Tsutsujigaoka from Hoosiers Asset Management Co., Ltd.

An unknown buyer completed the acquisition of RESIDIA Higashi-Ginza from Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269).

Advance Residence Investment Corporation (TSE:3269) completed the acquisition of Four Properties in Tokyo from ITOCHU Corporation (TSE:8001).

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

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Advance Residence Investment Corporation Announces Dividend for the Period from August 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021