Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2027 has deteriorated. 2027 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥17.3b to JP¥17.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥40.81 per share to JP¥35.14 per share. Net income forecast to grow 34% next year vs 9.3% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,085 to JP¥1,340. Share price fell 6.3% to JP¥1,018 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 14
Price target increased by 24% to JP¥1,340 Up from JP¥1,085, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 27% above last closing price of JP¥1,057. Stock is up 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥35.14 for next year compared to JP¥26.31 last year. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥26.31 (up from JP¥19.30 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥15.2b (up 15% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥2.32b (up 30% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 15% (up from 14% in FY 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 29%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 12
TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026 TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026. Announcement • May 10
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 12, 2026 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results at 3:00 PM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 12, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥1,048, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 29x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Real Estate industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 67% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 17
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to JP¥1,007. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥828, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 39%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 24% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 119% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥9.05 (up from JP¥5.22 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥3.95b (up 17% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥798.0m (up 64% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 20% (up from 14% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 51%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 10
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.0% to JP¥869. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥719, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 35%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 28% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 157% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Dec 26
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 10, 2026 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 10, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 29
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 16% to JP¥920. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥761, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 35%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 28% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 157% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥6.31 (down from JP¥9.45 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥3.67b (up 12% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥557.0m (down 37% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 15% (down from 27% in 2Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 35% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Sep 27
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 11, 2025 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 11, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 05 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 50% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Aug 07
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥4.69 (up from JP¥4.12 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥3.47b (up 16% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥414.0m (up 7.3% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 12% (down from 13% in 1Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 107%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 16
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 05, 2025 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 05, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥19.30 (down from JP¥54.59 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥13.2b (down 4.1% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.79b (down 65% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 14% (down from 37% in FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥16.5b to JP¥15.1b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥32.30 per share to JP¥20.41 per share. Net income forecast to grow 293% next year vs 6.5% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,045 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥653 over the past week. Announcement • May 13
TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025 TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025. Announcement • Apr 19
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 13, 2025 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 13, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 30 June 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Feb 05
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.22 (vs JP¥5.43 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥5.22 (down from JP¥5.43 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥3.38b (down 3.0% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥486.0m (down 4.5% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 04
TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces an Equity Buyback for 5,000,000 shares, representing 5.37% for ¥3,345 million. TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 5,000,000 shares, representing 5.37% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for a total purchase price of ¥3,345 million. The shares will be repurchased at a price of ¥669 per share. The purpose of the program is to implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment and to improve capital efficiency. As of December 31, 2024, the company had 93,151,423 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 697,929 treasury shares. Announcement • Jan 03
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 04, 2025 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 04, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥9.45 (down from JP¥56.40 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥3.28b (down 1.9% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥882.0m (down 83% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 27% (down from 158% in 2Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Sep 21
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 12, 2024 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 12, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 05 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.12 (vs JP¥6.74 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥4.12 (down from JP¥6.74 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥2.99b (down 14% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥386.0m (down 39% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 13% (down from 18% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Aug 06
TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces an Equity Buyback for 500,000 shares, representing 0.53% for ¥310 million. TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 500,000 shares, representing 0.53% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for a total purchase price of ¥310 million. The shares will be repurchased at a price of ¥619 per share. The purpose of the program is to implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment and to improve capital efficiency. As of March 31, 2024, the company had 93,629,112 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 220,240 treasury shares. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥561, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 44x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Real Estate industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 8.8% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 01
Now 42% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.1% to JP¥745. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥524, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 7.3% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Jun 25
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.7% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 25
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.1% to JP¥746. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥602, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 7.3% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • May 18
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥54.59 (up from JP¥34.27 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥13.7b (down 13% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥5.12b (up 57% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 37% (up from 21% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • May 16
TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 TOC Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Price Target Changed • May 15
Price target decreased by 14% to JP¥1,020 Down from JP¥1,180, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 44% above last closing price of JP¥706. Stock is up 9.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥50.08 for next year compared to JP¥34.27 last year. Announcement • May 03
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 14% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥5.43 (down from JP¥8.00 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.49b (down 12% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥509.0m (down 33% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 15% (down from 19% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 4.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Dec 28
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 06, 2024 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 06, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to JP¥713, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Real Estate industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 7.6% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥56.40 (up from JP¥10.62 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.35b (down 17% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥5.29b (up 424% from 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 4.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 01
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from JP¥13.9b to JP¥13.5b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥40.82 to JP¥49.83. Net income forecast to grow 44% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥1,180. Share price was steady at JP¥631 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 28
TOC Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 07, 2023 TOC Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 07, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share at 1.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 08 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥6.74 (vs JP¥10.94 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥6.74 (down from JP¥10.94 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.48b (down 13% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥636.0m (down 39% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 18% (down from 26% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.9%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 09
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 497% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from JP¥6.84 to JP¥40.82. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥13.9b. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,130 to JP¥1,170. Share price rose 4.0% to JP¥630 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 10
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥34.27 (up from JP¥32.68 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥15.7b (down 4.0% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.26b (up 4.9% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 21% (up from 19% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.1%. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year. Announcement • May 10
TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,500,000 shares, representing 1.58% for ¥990 million. TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,500,000 shares, representing 1.58% of its share capital, for ¥990 million. The shares will be repurchased at a price of ¥660 per share. The company will repurchase its shares in order to improve capital efficiency and implement a flexible capital policy that responds to changes in the business environment. The share repurchase program will run until May 10, 2023 As of March 31, 2023, the company had 95,039,571 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 239,781 shares in treasury. Price Target Changed • May 10
Price target increased by 7.6% to JP¥1,130 Up from JP¥1,050, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 79% above last closing price of JP¥631. Stock is up 0.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥32.62 for next year compared to JP¥32.68 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share at 1.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥8.00 (down from JP¥10.36 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥3.96b (down 1.5% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥760.0m (down 23% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 19% (down from 25% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is expected to decline by 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥10.62 (up from JP¥10.31 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.05b (up 1.0% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.01b (up 3.0% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 25% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 7.8%. Revenue is expected to decline by 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The new board member was not an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (5 non-independent directors). Independent Outside Director Genta Torisu was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥10.62 (up from JP¥10.31 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.05b (up 1.0% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.01b (up 3.0% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 25% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 7.8%. Revenue is expected to decline by 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 09
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from JP¥16.0b to JP¥15.5b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥17.90 to JP¥32.63. Net income forecast to shrink 33% next year vs 5.3% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥1,080 to JP¥1,050. Share price was steady at JP¥758 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 08 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥10.94 (vs JP¥0.19 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥10.94 (up from JP¥0.19 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.00b (down 1.2% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.04b (up JP¥1.06b from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 26% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 6.3% compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 01
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥750, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 42x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Real Estate industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 11
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥32.68 (down from JP¥43.20 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥16.3b (up 1.6% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥3.11b (down 25% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 19% (down from 26% in FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 7.1%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 2.1% compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 50% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥17.0b to JP¥16.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥35.78 per share to JP¥17.89 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 32% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥1,080. Share price fell 5.7% to JP¥628 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to JP¥1,060 Down from JP¥1,470, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 66% above last closing price of JP¥639. Stock is down 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥30.51 for next year compared to JP¥43.20 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. 7 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (7 non-independent directors). Independent Outside Director Genta Torisu was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 30 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 32% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Feb 09
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥10.36 (down from JP¥12.43 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥4.02b (down 6.0% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥984.0m (down 17% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 25% (down from 28% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 20%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.7%, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 25
Price target decreased to JP¥1,060 Down from JP¥1,490, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 78% above last closing price of JP¥596. Stock is down 10.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥30.51 for next year compared to JP¥43.20 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥10.31 (vs JP¥11.25 in 2Q 2021) The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥4.01b (down 3.6% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥980.0m (down 9.0% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 24% (down from 26% in 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2021. Payment date: 08 December 2021. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.3%). Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥43.20 (vs JP¥46.41 in FY 2020) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥16.1b (down 13% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥4.13b (down 7.7% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 26% (up from 24% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • May 12
Price target increased to JP¥1,490 Up from JP¥1,390, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 107% above last closing price of JP¥721. Stock is up 9.6% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥5.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 29 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (2.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥12.43 (vs JP¥10.64 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥4.28b (down 5.8% from 3Q 2020). Net income: JP¥1.19b (up 16% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 28% (up from 23% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 05
New 90-day high: JP¥746 The company is up 15% from its price of JP¥649 on 06 November 2020. The Japanese market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 11% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 12
New 90-day high: JP¥741 The company is up 11% from its price of JP¥665 on 14 October 2020. The Japanese market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 03
New 90-day high: JP¥697 The company is up 5.0% from its price of JP¥664 on 04 September 2020. The Japanese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 14% over the same period.