Earnings Beat: TOC Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

As you might know, TOC Co., Ltd. (TSE:8841) recently reported its full-year numbers. Revenues were JP¥13b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥19.31 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 12%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the one analyst covering TOC are now predicting revenues of JP¥15.1b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.4% to JP¥20.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of JP¥16.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥32.30 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for TOC

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥1,045 price target, showing that the analyst doesn't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that TOC is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 15% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 6.0% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% per year. Not only are TOC's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analyst is also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TOC. They also downgraded TOC's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,045, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price target.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for TOC going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for TOC you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.