Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation (TSE:3289) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to JP¥932 in the past week. Tokyu Fudosan Holdings beat revenue expectations by 4.8%, at JP¥267b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at JP¥26.52, some 9.8% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings' ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥1.13t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 19% to JP¥104. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥105 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,288, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Tokyu Fudosan Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,460 and the most bearish at JP¥1,140 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Tokyu Fudosan Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 3.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Tokyu Fudosan Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tokyu Fudosan Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,288, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.