Earnings Update: Takara Bio Inc. (TSE:4974) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Takara Bio Inc. (TSE:4974) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, Takara Bio delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of JP¥9.5b were 13% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 162% to JP¥15.71 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Takara Bio

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Takara Bio from three analysts is for revenues of JP¥48.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Takara Bio forecast to report a statutory profit of JP¥27.15 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥49.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥33.12 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,467, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Takara Bio at JP¥1,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,000. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Takara Bio's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Takara Bio's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Takara Bio is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Takara Bio. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Takara Bio's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Takara Bio. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Takara Bio analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Takara Bio .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.