Earnings Miss: PeptiDream Inc. Missed EPS By 5.6% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for PeptiDream Inc. (TSE:4587) shareholders, with its shares surging 18% to JP¥2,328 in the week since its latest annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥47b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.6% to hit JP¥116 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PeptiDream

Taking into account the latest results, PeptiDream's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥46.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 15% to JP¥98.05 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥41.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥86.43 in 2025. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in sentiment following the latest results, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥3,457, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PeptiDream at JP¥4,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,700. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 41% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that PeptiDream's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards PeptiDream following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,457, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PeptiDream. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for PeptiDream going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for PeptiDream that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.