Earnings Miss: Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 10% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:4578) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥155 unfortunately missed expectations by 10%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of JP¥621b exceed expectations by 3.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Otsuka Holdings

Following last week's earnings report, Otsuka Holdings' ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥2.29t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 79% to JP¥503. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.28t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥498 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥8,832, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Otsuka Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥10,800 and the most bearish at JP¥6,100 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Otsuka Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Otsuka Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Otsuka Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Otsuka Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥8,832, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Otsuka Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Otsuka Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.