Earnings Miss: Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 20% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4547) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to JP¥3,705 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥119, some 20% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥42b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kissei Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kissei Pharmaceutical's three analysts is for revenues of JP¥86.4b in 2026. This reflects a modest 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 25% to JP¥204 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥87.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥205 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,100, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kissei Pharmaceutical at JP¥4,600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,800. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Kissei Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 4.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Kissei Pharmaceutical.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kissei Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Kissei Pharmaceutical (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.