Santen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

TSE:4536 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥578.6b

Santen Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is 4536 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4536 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4536 (¥1670.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3466.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4536 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4536?

Key metric: As 4536 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4536. This is calculated by dividing 4536's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4536's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.1x
EarningsJP¥26.12b
Market CapJP¥578.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4536's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4536 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.9x
4540 Tsumura
14.6x7.1%JP¥368.9b
4528 Ono Pharmaceutical
8.6x-5.8%JP¥820.8b
4530 Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical
21.4x11.1%JP¥313.7b
4516 Nippon Shinyaku
10.8x-10.2%JP¥281.9b
4536 Santen Pharmaceutical
22.1x11.5%JP¥578.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4536 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the peer average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4536's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4536 22.1xIndustry Avg. 15.1xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4536 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the JP Pharmaceuticals industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4536's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4536 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.1x
Fair PE Ratio23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4536 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4536 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,670.50
JP¥2,103.00
+25.9%
14.5%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,700.00n/a10
Nov ’25JP¥1,781.50
JP¥2,068.00
+16.1%
15.2%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,550.00n/a10
Oct ’25JP¥1,767.00
JP¥2,068.00
+17.0%
15.2%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,550.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥1,876.50
JP¥1,983.00
+5.7%
15.2%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,550.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥1,770.50
JP¥1,958.00
+10.6%
14.8%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,600.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥1,656.50
JP¥1,866.67
+12.7%
18.6%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Jun ’25JP¥1,628.00
JP¥1,827.00
+12.2%
19.2%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,300.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥1,523.00
JP¥1,767.00
+16.0%
15.8%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,300.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥1,420.00
JP¥1,767.00
+24.4%
15.8%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,300.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥1,493.00
JP¥1,738.89
+16.5%
16.2%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥1,473.00
JP¥1,674.44
+13.7%
16.3%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Jan ’25JP¥1,405.00
JP¥1,635.56
+16.4%
16.0%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,200.00n/a9
Dec ’24JP¥1,422.50
JP¥1,624.44
+14.2%
16.7%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,200.00n/a9
Nov ’24JP¥1,323.50
JP¥1,585.56
+19.8%
14.5%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,781.509
Oct ’24JP¥1,373.50
JP¥1,532.86
+11.6%
16.3%JP¥1,850.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,767.007
Sep ’24JP¥1,357.50
JP¥1,403.33
+3.4%
20.1%JP¥1,850.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,876.509
Aug ’24JP¥1,253.50
JP¥1,364.44
+8.9%
19.1%JP¥1,800.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,770.509
Jul ’24JP¥1,225.50
JP¥1,336.67
+9.1%
20.8%JP¥1,800.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,656.509
Jun ’24JP¥1,274.00
JP¥1,351.00
+6.0%
21.7%JP¥1,800.00JP¥980.00JP¥1,628.0010
May ’24JP¥1,163.00
JP¥1,296.00
+11.4%
20.5%JP¥1,800.00JP¥980.00JP¥1,523.0010
Apr ’24JP¥1,130.00
JP¥1,290.00
+14.2%
24.3%JP¥1,950.00JP¥870.00JP¥1,420.0010
Mar ’24JP¥1,022.00
JP¥1,295.00
+26.7%
24.4%JP¥1,950.00JP¥870.00JP¥1,493.0010
Feb ’24JP¥1,007.00
JP¥1,265.00
+25.6%
26.0%JP¥1,950.00JP¥870.00JP¥1,473.0010
Jan ’24JP¥1,074.00
JP¥1,266.00
+17.9%
25.9%JP¥1,950.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,405.0010
Dec ’23JP¥1,101.00
JP¥1,246.00
+13.2%
26.4%JP¥1,950.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,422.5010
Nov ’23JP¥1,001.00
JP¥1,241.00
+24.0%
25.2%JP¥1,950.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,323.5010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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