Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.5% to JP¥4,217 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥1.1t, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 60%, coming in at JP¥79.40 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Takeda Pharmaceutical's 16 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥4.56t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 69% to JP¥148. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.57t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥152 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥4,971, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Takeda Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,900 and the most bearish at JP¥4,500 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Takeda Pharmaceutical is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Takeda Pharmaceutical.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Takeda Pharmaceutical. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,971, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Takeda Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Takeda Pharmaceutical .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.