Kadokawa Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Kadokawa Corporation (TSE:9468) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to JP¥3,503 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥278b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 19% to hit JP¥53.87 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Kadokawa's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥294.2b in 2026. This would be a modest 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 129% to JP¥116. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥296.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥120 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Kadokawa

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,117, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Kadokawa, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,700 and the most bearish at JP¥3,800 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kadokawa'shistorical trends, as the 5.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So although Kadokawa is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kadokawa. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Kadokawa's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,117, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kadokawa going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kadokawa .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.