COVER (5253) Stock Overview
COVER Corporation distribute videos and music through VTubers distribution platform in Japan. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
5253 Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 14 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Top Community Narratives
JP¥1.91k
FV
11.2% undervalued intrinsic discount13.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
29
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COVER Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | JP¥1,700.00 |
| 52 Week High | JP¥2,365.00 |
| 52 Week Low | JP¥1,311.00 |
| Beta | 0.89 |
| 1 Month Change | 17.24% |
| 3 Month Change | -0.93% |
| 1 Year Change | -13.44% |
| 3 Year Change | -12.69% |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | 21.43% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 18
Large 1 time write downs clears FY27 and F28 for refocused direction
(Fair Value adjusted to 13%, matching in-line with company Net Revenue forecast and accounting for a conservative outlook due to current headwinds.) Multi-model Intrinsic Value estimates: EPV: ¥1291 EV/EBITDA (Relative): ¥1480 P/E (Relative): ¥1150 DCF - EBITDA Exit: ¥2280 DCF - Growth Exit: ¥3640 Major headwinds: Rebounding by salvaging applicable technology from HoloEarth Reallocation of resources, staff or evaluation of necessary workforce reduction SG&A Continues to grow as management believes more talent managers and support staff or needed to make their talent more productive. Several new labor laws and standards came into effect in 2026 directly affecting Entrusted Business Operators (AKA the talent/VTubers) - These laws require companies be in compliance and in some cases, significantly their signed agreements which can significantly affect future terms and agreements made with the company.New Narrative • May 14
Significant headwinds will temper expectations for FY2027
12-month forecast for 2026-2027: 1150-1480 Yen a share DCF 5 year Exit forecast: 2280-3640 Yen a share Cover Corporation's annual fiscal report was soul crushing as missteps from management, wasted production time and unfocused effort all led to a significant amount of waste in workloads and investment potential. Cover's "Metaverse" project with HoloEarth is officially dead in the water and will be discontinued after spending over 3 Billion Yen in development/support costs over the past 2 1/2 years.Narrative Update • Apr 28
Trading Multiple Forecast shows decreased Faire Value
Current P/E models project Cover Corporation's fair price at approximately 1466 JPY with a 6.6% upside. EV / EBITDA models are bearish with Cover's fair price at current levels hovering 1333 to 1376 JPY with a -3.1% upside.Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 18
Large 1 time write downs clears FY27 and F28 for refocused direction
(Fair Value adjusted to 13%, matching in-line with company Net Revenue forecast and accounting for a conservative outlook due to current headwinds.) Multi-model Intrinsic Value estimates: EPV: ¥1291 EV/EBITDA (Relative): ¥1480 P/E (Relative): ¥1150 DCF - EBITDA Exit: ¥2280 DCF - Growth Exit: ¥3640 Major headwinds: Rebounding by salvaging applicable technology from HoloEarth Reallocation of resources, staff or evaluation of necessary workforce reduction SG&A Continues to grow as management believes more talent managers and support staff or needed to make their talent more productive. Several new labor laws and standards came into effect in 2026 directly affecting Entrusted Business Operators (AKA the talent/VTubers) - These laws require companies be in compliance and in some cases, significantly their signed agreements which can significantly affect future terms and agreements made with the company.New Narrative • May 14
Significant headwinds will temper expectations for FY2027
12-month forecast for 2026-2027: 1150-1480 Yen a share DCF 5 year Exit forecast: 2280-3640 Yen a share Cover Corporation's annual fiscal report was soul crushing as missteps from management, wasted production time and unfocused effort all led to a significant amount of waste in workloads and investment potential. Cover's "Metaverse" project with HoloEarth is officially dead in the water and will be discontinued after spending over 3 Billion Yen in development/support costs over the past 2 1/2 years.Narrative Update • Apr 28
Trading Multiple Forecast shows decreased Faire Value
Current P/E models project Cover Corporation's fair price at approximately 1466 JPY with a 6.6% upside. EV / EBITDA models are bearish with Cover's fair price at current levels hovering 1333 to 1376 JPY with a -3.1% upside.Narrative Update • Apr 04
Margin compression will persist through FY 2028
*Effects of joint venture between Cover Corporation and NERD Inc expected to add margin compression no greater than 9% but worth watching given current spending levels.* News and statements made over the past 7 days have raised news doubts regarding the sticker price of Cover Corporation over the next 2-5 years. With new Japanese laws implemented in 2026 upending overwhelming control between talent and company, combined with the joint venture announcement between Cover and private talent management agency NERD Inc., the blindsiding announcement related to their male talent group "Holostars" shortly after the beginning of their new fiscal year shows a winding down of current contracts and expected exits sans further announcements over transition or control of management to a similar joint venture company or agency.Narrative Update • Feb 12
Mixed signals; potential hints of year end miss
Q3 delivered a mixed result picture with increased foreshadowing of risk over the next 6 weeks. Total revenue fell short of analyst forecasts while forecasted EPS beat its target.Narrative Update • Jan 09
Price cliff ahead! Watch the short selling
Price (Valuation): unchanged Rationale: Valuation update " Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 26%" is severely misleading. Updated "Investor sentiment" is from major short selling ahead of Cover Corporation's Q3 report.Narrative Update • Jan 08
Q3 Déjà vu?
Current short term "Fair Value" price maintained at 1.72k. Long term Fair Value and price forecast will depend on the results from their Q3 report.Narrative Update • Dec 20
Cover approaching critical Q3 report
Cover continues to lavishly spend while failing to produce any trackable data involving current live services still under development (ie. HoloEarth, Hololive RECORDS, and their (third) attempt at a "Fanclub" premium service).Analysis Article • Nov 20
There Are Some Holes In COVER's (TSE:5253) Solid Earnings Release
Investors appear disappointed with COVER Corporation's ( TSE:5253 ) recent earnings, despite the decent statutory...Analysis Article • Jun 12
Here's Why We Think COVER (TSE:5253) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Analysis Article • May 21
COVER's (TSE:5253) Earnings Are Built On Soft Foundations
Investors appear disappointed with COVER Corporation's ( TSE:5253 ) recent earnings, despite the decent statutory...Analysis Article • Apr 30
Capital Investments At COVER (TSE:5253) Point To A Promising Future
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'll want to see a...Analysis Article • Apr 08
What You Can Learn From COVER Corporation's (TSE:5253) P/E After Its 25% Share Price Crash
COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25...Analysis Article • Nov 19
We Think You Should Be Aware Of Some Concerning Factors In COVER's (TSE:5253) Earnings
Following the solid earnings report from COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ), the market responded by bidding up the stock...Analysis Article • Aug 12
The Price Is Right For COVER Corporation (TSE:5253) Even After Diving 29%
COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Analysis Article • Jun 24
COVER Corporation's (TSE:5253) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 31% Share Price Bounce
Those holding COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 31% in the...Analysis Article • May 14
With EPS Growth And More, COVER (TSE:5253) Makes An Interesting Case
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Analysis Article • Apr 21
Why We're Not Concerned Yet About COVER Corporation's (TSE:5253) 26% Share Price Plunge
COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26...Analysis Article • Apr 16
COVER Corporation's (TSE:5253) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 68% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, COVER fair value estimate is JP¥3,193 COVER's JP¥1,905 share...Analysis Article • Mar 07
COVER Corporation's (TSE:5253) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.1x COVER Corporation ( TSE:5253 ) may be sending very bearish signals...Shareholder Returns
| 5253 | JP Entertainment | JP Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 18.9% | 0.6% | -3.1% |
| 1Y | -13.4% | -21.6% | 38.2% |
Return vs Industry: 5253 exceeded the JP Entertainment industry which returned -22.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: 5253 underperformed the JP Market which returned 39.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| 5253 volatility | |
|---|---|
| 5253 Average Weekly Movement | 8.5% |
| Entertainment Industry Average Movement | 4.9% |
| Market Average Movement | 5.0% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in JP Market | 9.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in JP Market | 2.5% |
Stable Share Price: 5253's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the JP market.
Volatility Over Time: 5253's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of JP stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 679 | Motoaki Tanigo | cover-corp.com |
COVER Corporation distribute videos and music through VTubers distribution platform in Japan. It also develops characters and anime-look avatars; plans and produces events; and offers video content, such as live streams, music videos, and animations through video distribution, as well as membership subscriptions, advertising, and promotions services. In addition, the company is involved in the electronic commerce, VTuber production, and media mix businesses; and development of Metaverse Holoearth, focusing on sandbox games that allow users to act freely in a virtual space.
COVER Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| 5253 fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | JP¥111.61b |
| Earnings (TTM) | JP¥3.02b |
| Revenue (TTM) | JP¥49.33b |
37.0x
P/E Ratio2.3x
P/S RatioIs 5253 overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| 5253 income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | JP¥49.33b |
| Cost of Revenue | JP¥25.82b |
| Gross Profit | JP¥23.51b |
| Other Expenses | JP¥20.49b |
| Earnings | JP¥3.02b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 45.94 |
| Gross Margin | 47.65% |
| Net Profit Margin | 6.11% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did 5253 perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/20 23:51 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/20 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
COVER Corporation is covered by 9 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Kazuki Sakaguchi | Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. |
| Norihiro Miyazaki | Goldman Sachs |
| Yasuyoshi Mimura | Ichiyoshi Research Institute Inc. |