Revenue Miss: Toei Animation Co.,Ltd. Fell 13% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Toei Animation Co.,Ltd. (TSE:4816) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were JP¥19b, 13% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of JP¥116 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Toei AnimationLtd, is for revenues of JP¥94.4b in 2026. This implies a small 2.9% reduction in Toei AnimationLtd's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 5.1% to JP¥108 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥95.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥108 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Toei AnimationLtd

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,736, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Toei AnimationLtd analyst has a price target of JP¥4,320 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,000. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Toei AnimationLtd shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.9% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 10% per year. It's pretty clear that Toei AnimationLtd's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,736, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Toei AnimationLtd. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Toei AnimationLtd analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Toei AnimationLtd Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.