We Think You Can Look Beyond CL Holdings' (TSE:4286) Lackluster Earnings

The market was pleased with the recent earnings report from CL Holdings Inc. (TSE:4286), despite the profit numbers being soft. We think that investors might be looking at some positive factors beyond the earnings numbers.

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Zooming In On CL Holdings' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

CL Holdings has an accrual ratio of -0.58 for the year to September 2025. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of JP¥6.4b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of JP¥325.0m. Given that CL Holdings had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of JP¥6.4b would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

Check out our latest analysis for CL Holdings

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, CL Holdings issued 6.3% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. You can see a chart of CL Holdings' EPS by clicking here.

A Look At The Impact Of CL Holdings' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Unfortunately, CL Holdings' profit is down 42% per year over three years. Even looking at the last year, profit was still down 20%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 24% in that time. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

In the long term, if CL Holdings' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

CL Holdings' profit was reduced by unusual items worth JP¥112m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect CL Holdings to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On CL Holdings' Profit Performance

In conclusion, both CL Holdings' accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative, but the dilution means that per-share performance is weaker than the statutory profit numbers imply. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that CL Holdings' underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CL Holdings you should know about.

Our examination of CL Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.