Further Upside For Neo Marketing Inc. (TSE:4196) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 25% Bounce

Neo Marketing Inc. (TSE:4196) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 29%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Neo Marketing's P/E ratio of 14.6x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Japan is also close to 13x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Neo Marketing certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Neo Marketing

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Neo Marketing, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Neo Marketing's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 68% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 63% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is only predicted to deliver 8.4% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is stronger based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Neo Marketing's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance is at its limits and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Neo Marketing appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Neo Marketing currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued if recent medium-term earnings trends continue, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Neo Marketing (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.