gumi Inc.'s (TSE:3903) 37% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Despite an already strong run, gumi Inc. (TSE:3903) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 37% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 36%.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking gumi is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.3x, considering almost half the companies in Japan's Entertainment industry have P/S ratios below 1.2x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for gumi

How Has gumi Performed Recently?

For example, consider that gumi's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on gumi's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, gumi would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 33% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that gumi's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

gumi's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of gumi revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with gumi (including 2 which are potentially serious).

If you're unsure about the strength of gumi's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.