Members (TSE:2130) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2130 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2130 (¥2467) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥7604.3)

2130 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

2130 Stock Overview

Members Co., Ltd. provides digital marketing services in Japan.

Rewards

Trading at 67.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.5% per year

Earnings grew by 56.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Members Competitors

FreakOut Holdings

TSE:6094

JP¥31.7b

Macromill

TSE:3978

JP¥35.3b

Vector

TSE:6058

JP¥45.5b

Orchestra Holdings

TSE:6533

JP¥23.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Members
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥2,467.00
52 Week High	JP¥3,625.00
52 Week Low	JP¥1,900.00
Beta	1.0
1 Month Change	-16.15%
3 Month Change	-26.90%
1 Year Change	-27.76%
3 Year Change	28.09%
5 Year Change	259.10%
Change since IPO	697.09%

Shareholder Returns

	2130	JP Media	JP Market
7D	-9.4%	-1.1%	-1.1%
1Y	-27.8%	-15.9%	-7.0%

Return vs Industry: 2130 underperformed the JP Media industry which returned -15.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 2130 underperformed the JP Market which returned -7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 2130's price volatile compared to industry and market?
2130 volatility
2130 Average Weekly Movement	8.1%
Media Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	4.2%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.4%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.2%

Stable Share Price: 2130 is more volatile than 75% of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 2130's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of JP stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	1,838	Tadashi Kemmotsu	https://www.members.co.jp

Members Co., Ltd. provides digital marketing services in Japan. It offers website operation management, web integration, social media marketing, promotional support, and web strategy/UX design services. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Members Fundamentals Summary

How do Members's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
2130 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥32.69b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥1.40b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥14.94b

23.3x

P/E Ratio

2.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 2130 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
2130 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥14.94b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥10.18b
Gross Profit	JP¥4.76b
Other Expenses	JP¥3.35b
Earnings	JP¥1.40b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	105.96
Gross Margin	31.84%
Net Profit Margin	9.40%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 2130 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.2%

Current Dividend Yield

16%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 2130 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2130?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2130. This is calculated by dividing 2130's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2130's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥32.69b

2130 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.5x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2130's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

2130 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2130 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.9x
6094 FreakOut Holdings	46x	24.4%	JP¥31.7b
3978 Macromill	10.1x	3.4%	JP¥35.3b
6058 Vector	22x	19.6%	JP¥45.5b
6533 Orchestra Holdings	29.6x	n/a	JP¥23.7b
2130 Members	23.3x	22.5%	JP¥32.7b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2130 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.3x) compared to the peer average (26.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2130's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Media Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2130 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.3x) compared to the JP Media industry average (14.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2130's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2130 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	23.3x
Fair PE Ratio	20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2130 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2130 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2130 (¥2467) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7604.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2130 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 2130 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1x)

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Future Growth

How is Members forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 2130's forecast earnings growth (22.5% per year) is above the savings rate (0.04%).

Earnings vs Market: 2130's earnings (22.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (8.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 2130's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 2130's revenue (22.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the JP market (4.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 2130's revenue (22.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 2130's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.6%)

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Past Performance

How has Members performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

24.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 2130 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 2130's current net profit margins (9.4%) are higher than last year (7.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 2130's earnings have grown significantly by 24% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 2130's earnings growth over the past year (56.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (24% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 2130 earnings growth over the past year (56.7%) exceeded the Media industry 55.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 2130's Return on Equity (23.8%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Members's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 2130's short term assets (¥8.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥4.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: 2130's short term assets (¥8.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥314.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 2130 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 2130 has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 0%.

Debt Coverage: 2130 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 2130 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Members's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.22%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 2130's dividend (1.22%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (1.69%).

High Dividend: 2130's dividend (1.22%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (3.73%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, 2130 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 2130's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 6 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (16.3%), 2130's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (24.2%), 2130's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tadashi Kemmotsu (57 yo)

27.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Tadashi Kemmotsu has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Members Co., Ltd. since June 1995. Mr. Kemmotsu joined Nihon Godo Finance (now Jafco Co., Ltd.) in April 1990.He joined Hikari Ts...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 2130's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 2130's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.2%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31