We Think KG Intelligence (TYO:2408) Needs To Drive Business Growth Carefully

There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether KG Intelligence (TYO:2408) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

See our latest analysis for KG Intelligence

When Might KG Intelligence Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. As at December 2020, KG Intelligence had cash of JP¥4.2b and no debt. In the last year, its cash burn was JP¥344m. That means it had a cash runway of very many years as of December 2020. Even though this is but one measure of the company's cash burn, the thought of such a long cash runway warms our bellies in a comforting way. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

How Well Is KG Intelligence Growing?

Notably, KG Intelligence actually ramped up its cash burn very hard and fast in the last year, by 163%, signifying heavy investment in the business. As if that's not bad enough, the operating revenue also dropped by 23%, making us very wary indeed. In light of the above-mentioned, we're pretty wary of the trajectory the company seems to be on. In reality, this article only makes a short study of the company's growth data. You can take a look at how KG Intelligence has developed its business over time by checking this visualization of its revenue and earnings history.

Can KG Intelligence Raise More Cash Easily?

Even though it seems like KG Intelligence is developing its business nicely, we still like to consider how easily it could raise more money to accelerate growth. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Since it has a market capitalisation of JP¥2.1b, KG Intelligence's JP¥344m in cash burn equates to about 16% of its market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.

So, Should We Worry About KG Intelligence's Cash Burn?

On this analysis of KG Intelligence's cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. While we're the kind of investors who are always a bit concerned about the risks involved with cash burning companies, the metrics we have discussed in this article leave us relatively comfortable about KG Intelligence's situation. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 3 warning signs for KG Intelligence (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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